Cardiovascular Disease (10-year risk)

The Framingham Heart Study recommends the 2018 Prevention Guidelines Tool CV Risk Calculator to calculate to estimate 10-year and lifetime risks for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). This 2018 calculator has been provided by t he American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology. The Risk Calculator enables health care providers and patients to estimate 10-year and lifetime risks for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), defined as coronary death or nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal stroke, based on the Pooled Cohort Equations and the work of Lloyd-Jones, et al., respectively. The information required to estimate ASCVD risk includes age, sex, race, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure lowering medication use, diabetes status, and smoking status.

Find Guidelines and supplemental materials here: AHA and ACC 2013 Prevention Guideline Tools

FHS Cardiovascular Disease (10-year risk)

Outcome
CVD (coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, peripheral artery disease, heart failure)

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 12 years, 10-year risk prediction

Population of interest
Individuals 30 to 74 years old and without CVD at the baseline examination

Excel spreadsheets:

Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios – Primary Model

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88936)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 3.06117 21.35 (14.03, 32.48)
Log of Total Cholesterol 1.12370 3.08 (2.05, 4.62)
Log of HDL Cholesterol -0.93263 0.40 (0.30, 0.52)
Log of SBP if not treated 1.93303 6.91 (3.91, 12.20)
Log of SBP if treated 1.99881 7.38 (4.22, 12.92)
Smoking 0.65451 1.92 (1.65, 2.24)
Diabetes 0.57367 1.78 (1.43, 2.20)
Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.95012)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 2.32888 10.27 (5.65, 18.64)
Log of Total Cholesterol 1.20904 3.35 (2.00, 5.62)
Log of HDL Cholesterol -0.70833 0.49 (0.351, 0.691)
Log of SBP if not treated 2.76157 15.82 (7.86, 31.87)
Log of SBP if treated 2.82263 16.82 (8.46, 33.46)
Smoking 0.52873 1.70 (1.40, 2.06)
Diabetes 0.69154 2.00 (1.49, 2.67)

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.95012 exp(ΣßX – 26.1931) where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88936 exp(ΣßX – 23.9802)
**Estimated regression coefficient

Simple Office-based non-laboratory Predictors of CVD Regression Coefficients and Hazard Ratios

Men* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.88431)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 3.11296 22.49 (14.80, 34.16)
Log of Body Mass Index 0.79277 2.21 (1.25, 3.91)
Log of SBP if not treated 1.85508 6.39 (3.61, 11.33)
Log of SBP if treated 1.92672 6.87 (3.90, 12.08)
Smoking 0.70953 2.03 (1.75, 2.37)
Diabetes 0.53160 1.70 (1.37, 2.11)
Women* (10-year Baseline Survival: So(10) = 0.94833)
Variable Beta** p-value Hazard Ratio 95% CI
Log of Age 2.72107 15.20 (8.59, 26.87)
Log of Body Mass Index 0.51125 1.67 (0.98, 2.85)
Log of SBP if not treated 2.81291 16.66 (8.27, 33.54)
Log of SBP if treated 2.88267 17.86 (8.97, 35.57)
Smoking 0.61868 1.86 (1.53, 2.25)
Diabetes 0.77763 2.18 (1.63, 2.91)

* The 10-year risk for women can be calculated as 1-0.94833 exp(ΣßX – 26.0145) where ß is the regression coefficient and X is the level for each risk factor; the risk for men is given as 1-0.88431 exp(ΣßX – 23.9388)
**Estimated regression coefficient